Purpose The study aims to analyse the race towards green development and United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the cases of Huawei and Shell. Both companies are the leaders in their respective industries. Huawei is an example case study representing the information and communications technology (ICT) industry whereas Shell is an example case study representing the oil and gas industry. The research analyses of the races in achieving UN SDGs were undertaken based on the innovation diffusion framework with the use of machine learning algorithms trained to extract data on sustainability activities and initiatives. Design/methodology/approach The research analyses the two case studies of Huawei and Shell. The research was undertaken through the steps of training machine learning algorithms, industry benchmarking and evaluating the performance of the race. The analyses regarding the activities and initiatives of Huawei and Shell in contributing towards SDGs are based on the data in the past 10 years (Years 2010–2019) using machine learning to extract data on sustainability activities and initiatives. In the case of Huawei, 313 sustainability reports were fed to the unsupervised machine learning algorithms revealing 15,101 sustainability actions and initiatives related to UN SDGs in the ICT industry. In the case of Shell, 2,015 sustainability reports were fed to the unsupervised machine learning algorithms revealing 47,365 sustainability actions and initiatives related to UN SDGs in the oil and gas industry. Findings The analyses of findings revealed that Huawei and Shell performed very well in progressing towards the UN SDGs. Huawei had strong performance in the ICT industry with regard to SDGs No. 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 12 and 16 while Shell had strong performance in the oil and gas industry with regard to SDGs No. 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 12 and 16. Both companies had placed a focus on achieving SDG 12 responsible consumption and production, SDG 7 affordable and clean energy and SDG 4 quality education. The synthesised business model innovations of Huawei and Shell had shown their environmental, social and governance strategies – Huawei’s 2030 vision for green development and Shell’s 2050 vision for net zero emissions. Practical implications The five pillars of people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnership according to the UN 2030 agenda for sustainable development have shown the way a company operates to promote sustainable eco-systems. The extent to which both Huawei and Shell link corporate strategies to the UN SDGs has reflected their implementation progress. Furthermore, the business model innovations of Huawei and Shell provides a useful framework which can be applied to encourage other companies/organisations in various industries to undertake ESG activities in practice. Originality/value The main contribution of this research is the application of machine learning algorithms and the innovation diffusion model in analysing the SDGs performance. The study applies the innovation diffusion framework to explore strategic actions and initiatives of Huawei and Shell in transitioning towards sustainability. The use of machine learning algorithms has identified their sustainability approach in achieving the UN SDGs.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to create an ethical norm that will help guide the human race toward long-term survival. Design/methodology/approach The project posits a new societal ethical norm designed around a fundamental principle: the long-term survival of the human race with individual dignity. This study examines the requirements of the new norm and what is needed to achieve that goal. Findings There are three types of organizations that have the organizational and economic capacity to be responsible for future outcomes: governments, religions and corporations. These three types of organizations must act as if they have a moral compass that will compel them to develop and uphold the requirements for the survival of humanity with individual dignity. Research limitations/implications The analysis shows that a new, broader ethical norm must be established, and this norm implies that large organizations must act with a future embracing ethical behavior. Practical implications This study generates specific pathways for example: governments should adopt the just war principles and prohibitions on governments or other institutions from teaching any form of class superiority. These and other pathways are designed to diffuse threats to the fundamental principle. Social implications The fundamental principle includes universal human dignity. This means that the notion of individual dignity must be defined or understood, and the requirements to attain this goal must be identified. Originality/value This project takes concepts from long-termism, forward-looking collective responsibility, corporate social responsibility and the global catastrophic risk institute to advocate for a new ethical norm.

Purpose This paper aims to discuss the complexities and foresight of Mars colonization. There are many pioneers competing in a space race to Mars, for example, Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit. The analyses are focused on the aerospace industry – the process of space adventures to Mars. Design/methodology/approach This study offers new methodological approaches – the development of a complexity metric and system innovation mode – to analyze how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation. The complexity metric and system innovation model can be applied in various industries. These analysis tools can help gain insights into the strategies for achieving the diffusion of commercial space. Findings The analyses of findings have shown that, despite various attempts among the pioneers in a space race to colonize Mars (Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit, among others), the aerospace industry has not yet reached a stage of commercialization. The commercial space to Mars is of low systemic nature at present. Many companies compete in a space race to develop technologies on a proprietary basis. However, the highest complexity level suggests a multinational and intergovernmental collaboration to achieve economies of scale and economies of scope as well as accelerate the process of technology diffusion – successful commercial space for the interplanetary settlement. Originality/value The main contribution that shows originality and value of this paper is the development of a complexity metric and system innovation model which can be used to explore how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation and how they relate to the strategies in managing technological innovations. The new methodological approaches can be used and applied to various industries.

Purpose This paper aims to explore the financing mechanisms towards Mars commercialisation and SpaceX’s Mars mission programme to achieve the interplanetary settlement. This study also suggests the path to avoid the failure of space commercialisation. Design/methodology/approach This research uses a case study methodology (Eisenhardt, 1989; Yin, 2013). The analysis is based on the construct of technology S-curves and attempts to answer the research question: What are the financing mechanisms to achieve successful aerospace financing for Mars mission? This research used semi-structured questionnaire and conducted 51 in-depth interviews. The interview data were supported by an examination of secondary data to provide a cross check on the validity of research (Yin, 2013). The research findings provide lessons and insights into the challenges of aerospace financing to Mars. Findings This study has shown that financing via cryptocurrency and initial coin offering as well as crowdfunding (particularly donation- and equity-based crowdfunding) provide promising financial solutions to achieve Mars commercialisation. The implementation of Mars programme demonstrates the fifth generation of innovation development model – systems integration and extensive networking model. Originality/value Given a dearth of study focusing on the links between S-curves and technology financing of aerospace commercialisation, this research study attempts to fill a gap in this neglected area with a focus on exploring the financing mechanisms towards Mars commercialisation.

Purpose India is a rapidly developing economy with a rapidly expending internet infrastructure and among the largest Generation Z population. This generation is tech savvy and the access to technology and network creates a conducive environment for such usage. Internet banking for the same reasons is growing leaps and bounds. The introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) has created disruptions in the traditional banking also. This paper aims to analyze the comfort level and usage of AI-enabled banking services by Generation Z. Design/methodology/approach The data is collected from 272 Generation Z members. The differential aspects, that is, the relationship of independent variables with dependent variables (AI-enabled internet banking), were analyzed using the structural equation modeling approach. Findings Defining factors for AI-enabled internet banking were identified. The results of factors were consistent with previous studies. It was found that the usage of AI-enabled internet banking services is insignificant, indicating that Generation Z does not perceive any advantage in using AI-enabled internet banking services. Research limitations/implications This paper does not incorporate age groups other than Generation Z. Further research could throw light on the difference based on age groups. Further research is required to deeply understand why Generation Z does not perceive AI-enabled internet services as very important. Practical implications It has been observed that internet banking is important for Generation Z, but they also place greater importance on interpersonal communication. Banks need to consider this in designing their internet banking services. Originality/value This paper addresses the gap between comfort with and usage of AI-enabled internet banking services, by Generation Z. This paper indicates that the comfort with AI-enabled internet banking services does not translate to usage.

Purpose This paper aims to present a theoretical model for restructuring Colombia’s educational initiatives in response to current socioeconomic needs. More equitable and decolonized education could help learners decouple their capacities to imagine the future from colonialized paradigms, thereby opening spaces for more active engagement in their own futures. Design/methodology/approach The authors take a critical, postmodern approach focused on empowering people to transcend constraints from a colonial past and recognizing that the purpose of knowledge, although reflecting power and social relationships, is to help people improve society. Notions of situated and futures literacies nourish an approach toward a decolonized and glocalized educational model. Findings The current Colombian educational system tends to favor a single focus – local, national or international – at the expense of the others. The authors argue that educational policy and planning should account for three realms of knowledge: locally situated literacies, nationally situated literacies and globally situated literacies. Originality/value Deconstructing obsolete and colonized methodologies could not only help prepare Colombian learners for active engagement both within and beyond their modern-day borders but could also help transform other educational systems originally designed to support societies and economies that no longer exist, including those of the Global North.

Purpose Faraoyść is a translinguistic portmanteau neologism that describes the moment when oppressive systems are shaken and appear to be coming to an end, and joyful, liberated worlds feel within reach. The purpose of this research is to demonstrate that faraoyść helped participants helped participants to expand their situated imaginings, which increased their capacity to imagine decolonized worlds. Design/methodology/approach This research was guided by faraoyść as a conceptual framework that explores the empirical experience of joy through collaborative world-building activities. These praxis-based exercises were tested in a series of workshops both at the 2020 UNESCO Futures Literacy Summit and in collaboration with Negligence Refugees from Lebanon. Findings When activated by collaboratively designed speculative objects and stories generated through the lens of faraoyść, participants created spaces of rhizomatic world-building that allowed them to imagine beyond the boundaries of their situated imaginings. Once participants had mapped the ways their imaginations were limited by current colonial systems of power, they were able to reorient their roles and develop new means to act within decolonized systems. Originality/value Faraoyść is a novel conceptual framework that contributes to current movements to decolonize futuring and foresight. This paper also introduces the concepts of rhizomatic world-building – an emergent approach to co-imagination, and situated imaginings, which are the systemic frameworks within which one imagines the ways the world has, is, will and must work. In practice, faraoyść is grounded in abundance and the power of liberatory joy to strengthen and celebrate local traditions, storytelling, world-building and community power.

Purpose This study aims to extend existing theories and fills research gaps regarding the acceptance and use of new technologies by consumers by exploring the adoption of app-cab services in India. Through the application and comparison of a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) and UTAUT 2/expanded-UTAUT (E-UTAUT) models, this paper empirically tests the relationships between important constructs related to technology adoption, acceptance and utilization in India’s emerging economy. Design/methodology/approach In total, 612 responses to a questionnaire of active and regular users of app-cab services in India are examined. Path analysis and structural equation modeling presents interesting findings indicating that the expanded models have huge implications for the Indian app-cab industry. Findings This paper finds that the UTAUT 2/E-UTAUT models are a good fit for consumers and their behavior toward technology-based services. In particular, this study, one of the first of its kind, examines consumer acceptance and use behavior and identifies the factors that influence customer behavior with regard to new technology (app-cab services) in an emerging economy (India). Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Originality/value Very few studies are available on app-cab adoption in emerging economies.

Purpose The purpose of this study is as follows: update the 1983 survey to determine the strategic practices being used in 2020, draw conclusions on major organizational changes since the original 1984 study and recommend how leaders could use these findings to plan for strategic change. Design/methodology/approach This research updates an earlier study to learn how strategic planning and foresight are changing to cope with today’s high-tech world. The first author’s 1983 General Motors survey of “Strategic Planning in the Fortune 500” was updated by surveying 68 managers from 40 organizations to assess the current state-of-the-art. Results outline the leading edge of strategic practices today, illustrated by comments – from the respondents. Findings show a striking change from the earlier survey. Where strategic planning was formerly restricted to a top management function, respondents strongly think it should now include all units across the organization to form a bottom-up system. They also think it should extend to active participation from employees, customers, suppliers and other outside stakeholders. The main conclusion is that leaders should be developing the sophisticated systems that have been anticipated for many years but have rarely been practiced – strategic change from “the bottom up and the outside in.” Findings These results provide a rough assessment of the current state-of-the-art in strategic foresight. Research limitations/implications This study is limited because the sample was not randomly selected to provide a rigorous study that permits accurate statements for a well-defined population and the sample size is modest. Practical implications The first conclusion affirms that the strategic planning cycle remains the primary theoretical framework guiding strategy. However, the planning cycle is increasingly elaborated by new practices summarized in the second two conclusions described above. As noted, the need for strategic change now cuts across all organizational functions and levels. With massive change a constant, there is a move to decentralize strategy to agile units able to move quickly and hierarchical structures are being replaced with adaptive systems and innovative cultures. Managers are also broadening their methods to facilitate planning with stakeholders. Sound sources of information are considered a must and include direct communication with diverse and dissenting voices. Social implications While bottom-up systems and stakeholder management have been discussed endlessly, the time seems right to move these powerful concepts from the leading edge that remains marginalized and into the mainstream of strategic foresight and management practice. Scholars and researchers should evaluate the level of participation in these models, their effectiveness and possible improvements. Strategic managers should start implementing these changes carefully, rather than introducing emerging technologies, advanced products and other organizational changes. Originality/value This study replicates a landmark survey of Strategic Planning in the Fortune 500. Results show that organizations should now implement crucial changes to operate from the bottom up and the outside in.

PurposeAlthough conformable devices are commonly designed to couple with the human body for personalized and localized medicine, their applications are expanding rapidly. This paper aims to delineate this expansion and predict greater implications in diverse fields.Design/methodology/approachToday’s device technologies continue to face fundamental obstacles preventing their seamless integration with target objects to effectively access, evaluate and alter self-specific physical patterns, while still providing physical comfort and enabling continuous data collection. Due to their extreme mechanical compliance, conformable devices permit the query of signals occurring at interfaces so as to decode and encode biological, chemical and mechanical patterns with high resolution, precision and accuracy. These unique and versatile capabilities allow for a marked change in the approach to tackling scientific questions, with the ability to address societal challenges at large.FindingsHere, this study highlights the current state of these devices in a wide range of fields, such as interactive teaching, textiles, robotics, buildings and infrastructure, agriculture, climate and space, and further forecasts essential features of these devices in the near future.Originality/valueThis study justifies conformable devices’ growing utility through a novel quantitative analysis methodology that indexes peer-reviewed journal articles based on specific keywords, whereby this study tracks keyword frequency over time across specific fields in conjunction with conformability-like topics. The resulting trends’ trajectories provide the foundation for this study’s future projections. This study concludes with a perspective on the possible challenges concomitant with a ubiquitous presence of these technologies, including manufacturing, wireless communication, storage, compression, privacy and sharing of data, environmental sustainability, avoidance of inequality and bias and collaboration between stakeholders at all levels of impact.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the results of futures studies are knowledge or if not, what it is that futures studies actually produce. Five types of representations of the future are the result of these studies. As the value of futures studies depends on no small measure of their credibility, the standards for carrying out and reporting these studies are identified along with a description of how Toulmin’s model of informal logic can be used to best improve their credibility. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a multi-disciplinary literature review and integrative analysis. Findings Using epistemological criteria for knowledge as truth, belief and rationale, the results of futures studies are not and cannot be knowledge. Instead, futures studies produce five kinds of “representations of the future”: predictions, projections and forecasts, scenarios, visions and structures for action. Six standards for conducting and reporting the results of futures studies are provided which will increase the credibility of these studies. Toulmin’s informal logic format will provide the foundation for the most persuasive basis of such studies. Practical implications Futurists will understand that the products of their studies are not knowledge and why this is the case. They will also understand that the type of futures studies they are conducting are either conditional, contingent propositions or normative prescriptions in nature. There are six guidelines for carrying out and reporting futures studies which can also be used to assess the quality of published studies. They will see how the use of a certain kind of informal logic can establish the most credible foundations for their studies. Originality/value As an integrative literature review, it incorporates and simplifies widely disparate existing contributions to the topic of the nature of knowledge regarding futures studies and the criteria for making such studies as credible as possible.

Purpose This paper aims to discuss the possibility that Hyperloop using air levitation technology would create a revolution in the future industry of transportation. It also analyses the financing dimension in bringing Hyperloop technology towards full-scale commercialisation. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a case study of SpaceX Hyperloop. The analyses if Hyperloop would bring about a paradigmatic shift in the transportation industry are based on the classical economic theories of technology S-curves (Utterback and Abernathy, 1975; Fisher and Pry, 1971) and Schumpeter’s model of economic development (Schumpeter, 1939, 1967). The three factors influencing a paradigmatic change (a shift in technoeconomic paradigm) according to Freeman and Perez (1988) are also explored. Findings The analyses of findings have shown that Hyperloop has not yet met three factors influencing a paradigmatic change. However, the Hyperloop technology has the potential to create a new market of mass transportation. In terms of technology financing, SpaceX needs the right financing infrastructure – corporate venture arm, the crowdfunding platform, initial coin offering, as well as debt and equity financing to accelerate the process of commercialisation. As the project moves forward, Hyperloop technology would create a market for itself (innovation to create the demand and not demand to create innovation).v Originality/value Although the body of literature on technology management is already voluminous, there has been a scarcity of past research devoted to elucidating the technology disruption and technology financing. This research study has applied the concepts of technology S-curves to better understand if SpaceX Hyperloop would bring about a paradigm shift or revolution in the future of the transportation industry. The research findings would help fill an identified knowledge gap in the body of research in technology disruption and financing.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to substantiate the influence of approaches to the economic mechanisms formation for managing supply chains on export and import volumes as well as local cargo transportation. Design/methodology/approach The study outlines that the information technology use, in particular, highly specialized supply chain management (SCM) software, is necessary for the effective functioning of global supply chains (GSCs). For the purposes of the one-factor regression models of the relationship between the signs for the analyzed factors, volume of external cargo transportation, volume of internal cargo transportation and amount of investment in SCM software were built, and the correlation coefficients were also determined. The research was based on data of the Russian Federation, China and Germany. Findings According to the results, for local cargo transportation for all three counties (Russian Federation: R² = 0.3679, China: R² = 0.441, Germany: 0.441), the correlation coefficients indicated no connection between the factors under study, while for external ones, they denoted a strong direct relationship: Russian Federation: R² = 0.906, China: R² = 0.8692, Germany: 0.926. It is statistically confirmed that external transportations are carried out by enterprises involved in GSCs, while the local ones are mainly performed by the domestic market-oriented companies. Originality/value The study presents a model for the formation of economic mechanisms of SCM from the perspective of a systemic approach. It allows for structural analysis of the SCM strategy’s impact on the functioning of participants within three management levels (corporate, business and functional). The study contributes to the practical domain of SCM: the results of the study can be applied by top managers of companies in developing SCM strategies, as well as by officials in developing and implementing governmental supply chain-related policies. In terms of scientific contribution, the research can also be of use: its methods and results can be applied by scientists in researching approaches to the economic mechanisms formation for managing supply chains on export and import volumes, as well as local cargo transportation in various countries and regions.

Purpose Investments in agricultural research and development (AgR&D) have been an engine of agricultural productivity growth; as a result, food security and poverty situations have improved in many countries around the world. However, in Haiti, a small Caribbean country, neither has any formal agricultural research center (ARC) been established nor has a significant amount of money been invested for AgR&D. This paper aims to quantify whether setting up an ARC would be beneficial for Haiti. Design/methodology/approach A fixed-effects regression, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodity and Trade impact and benefit – cost ratio (BCR) measures are used to estimate future benefits from setting up a new ARC in Haiti. Findings A total of US$21.0m annual investment is required for the proposed ARC, which could generate up to US$1.16bn in social benefits during the next three decades. In terms of BCR, if one dollar is invested for AgR&D in Haiti, the payoff could be US$1.33-4.52. Therefore, establishing an ARC is crucial for Haiti, as it is expected to generate positive benefits for society by helping formulate pro-farmer policies as well as disseminating modern agricultural technologies among farmers. Originality/value Because, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is no such study in Haiti’s perspective, this study contributes to the country’s literature evaluating the feasibility of establishing a new research center in Haiti with a partial equilibrium economic model.

Purpose This study aims to explore the strategies of Xerox Corporation (Xerox) in the copier industry, as its inception to date. In particular, it examines the process of Xerox’s creating platform advantage (the capability to engender an increasing future and continuing success of new innovations or businesses). The study provides insights on Xerox’s pursuit of specific strategies in managing technological innovations in the midst of fierce market competition. Design/methodology/approach The research study uses a case study methodology to explore the strategic foresight of Xerox servitization. The study develops the new methodological tool to analyse the process of technology platform and business platform creation. The model can be applied to any industry to understand the pursuit of strategies in high-tech based market competition. Findings The analyses of Xerox’s strategies, as its inception to date, have revealed the process of platform creation (technology platform and business platform), which enabled Xerox to enjoy a continuing advantage. The results have shown that the pursuit of specific strategy is motivated by risk considerations as much as by a search for profit. Xerox has continually upgraded its platforms to get ready for the competition under the digital transformation of servitization. Originality/value The main contribution of this research study is the development of a new methodological framework, which can be used to analyse the process of platform creation in any industry. The new framework introduces a dynamic concept (rather than a static concept generally found in the previous literature) of technology and business platforms. This research study contributes to the body of knowledge in the areas of strategic management of innovation.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035. Design/methodology/approach The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis. Findings Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors. Originality/value The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.

Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

Purpose Given that Blockchain technology poses a growing challenge to the banking industry, this paper aims to analyse the innovation of Blockchain banking with regard to its systemic dimension, as well as dynamics of competition. The empirical research demonstrates how the systemic characteristics of Blockchain banking relate to the pursuit of strategies and to what extent these strategies influence the directional path and level of technology diffusion. Design/methodology/approach The research study uses a case study methodology to explore the strategic competition of Blockchain banking. The study proposes the systemic innovation model for analysing and tracking the path of innovations. The model can be applied to any industry to understand the process of innovation development and the strategies to win market share in the banking industry. This research makes a contribution towards the theory of technology diffusion to understand the directional path of innovations. Findings The analyses of findings reveal the situation whereby most banks still compete to create their own Blockchain banking systems. The analyses, based on the systemic innovation model, also shows the low systemic feature of Blockchain banking at present. From the technology diffusion perspective, the future of Blockchain banking may need cross-chain interoperability to support a full spectrum of payments and value exchanges on the internet of things. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is the systemic analysis of the latest innovation of Blockchain banking. Given that the research also includes the major banking innovation cases of ATM/cash cards, credit cards and electronic fund transfer at the point of sale/debit cards, the comparative analyses offer strategic insights to predict the progress, as well as pattern of technology development and diffusion for the case of Blockchain banking.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to review the literature on the Delphi method, its characteristics and current applications through an analysis of recent most-cited scientific papers, with an emphasis on three axes, namely, the number of rounds used, stakeholder participation relevance or only academic experts’ participation and the possibility of using indicators or techniques different from those related to descriptive statistics.Design/methodology/approachIn total, 57 papers were initially reviewed, 10 of them with a high citation rate. Then, an analysis was made of papers in Scopus for the period 2015-2018 published in theTechnological Forecasting and Social Change Journaland inthe Futures and Foresight Journal, which had the characteristic of displaying quartileQ1orQ2in Scimago in addition to being in Scopus.FindingsAmong the main results, the authors observe the tendency to use fewer rounds, a higher prevalence of stakeholder participation and not only academic experts but also the use of new types of modified Delphi such as real-time spatial Delphi, Delphi group, market Delphi, real-world Delphi and policy Delphi.Originality/valueAmong the conclusions, the possibility of using other indicators or complementary techniques to the descriptive statistics is highlighted such as number of justifications or comments between rounds, coefficients to quantify the competence or degree of expertise of the participants, measures of the perception of the expert on the usefulness of the presented feedback, graphs of the number of arguments according to the number of questions, the Wilcoxon Ranked Pairs Test, the k means, Kolmogorov–Simonov test and the Mann–Whitney U-test.

PurposeInformation warfare (IW) is a novel and poorly understood threat to the international community, which may be used more commonly as a foreign policy tool in the future. By identifying the key components of modern IW, this paper seeks to formulate policy recommendations for how best to deal with this new threat. The general overview of the topic that this paper provides contributes to current efforts to develop strategies to counter IW operations around the world.Design/methodology/approachThe goal of this paper is to break down the components of modern IW and provide policy recommendations for domestic and international governance on the issue. These recommendations will be based in part of historical initiatives to counter IW and existing literature on cyber governance. Central to the framework used to analyze the cases of Russian and North Korean IW operations are the seven defining features of “strategic” IW established by a 1996 RAND Corporation report, modified to incorporate the importance of cyberspace to cases of IW in the modern day.FindingsModern IW presents a new, multifaceted threat to states. Because of the value of IW as a tool by weaker states to counter stronger ones and the weakness of existing legal and normative frameworks, use of IW can be expected to be increasingly common. States can take action to promote international governance on the issue and develop policy frameworks for protecting themselves against IW.Practical implicationsIW has historically been a very tricky tactic to define and identify. By analyzing IW’s basic features, this paper provides a framework for breaking down IW into its component parts, which reveals valuable policy implications. Preventative efforts against IW can help restore trust to global information networks and lower the risk of conflict.Originality/valueFormal scholarship on modern IW and related subjects is lacking in comparison with higher visibility threats. Increased awareness of this issue, especially amongst civilian leaders, can augment global efforts to counter IW.

PurposeThis paper provides a detailed survey of the greatest dangers facing humanity this century. It argues that there are three broad classes of risks – the “Great Challenges” – that deserve our immediate attention, namely, environmental degradation, which includes climate change and global biodiversity loss; the distribution of unprecedented destructive capabilities across society by dual-use emerging technologies; and value-misaligned algorithms that exceed human-level intelligence in every cognitive domain. After examining each of these challenges, the paper then outlines a handful of additional issues that are relevant to understanding our existential predicament and could complicate attempts to overcome the Great Challenges. The central aim of this paper is to constitute an authoritative resource, insofar as this is possible in a scholarly journal, for scholars who are working on or interested in existential risks. In the author’s view, this is precisely the sort of big-picture analysis that humanity needs more of, if we wish to navigate the obstacle course of existential dangers before us.Design/methodology/approachComprehensive literature survey that culminates in a novel theoretical framework for thinking about global-scale risks.FindingsIf humanity wishes to survive and prosper in the coming centuries, then we must overcome three Great Challenges, each of which is sufficient to cause a significant loss of expected value in the future.Originality/valueThe Great Challenges framework offers a novel scheme that highlights the most pressing global-scale risks to human survival and prosperity. The author argues that the “big-picture” approach of this paper exemplifies the sort of scholarship that humanity needs more of to properly understand the various existential hazards that are unique to the twenty-first century.

PurposeThis paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist.Design/methodology/approachThis paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos.FindingsStatus quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible.Originality/valueSome current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

Purpose Islands have long been discussed as refuges from global catastrophes; this paper will evaluate them systematically, discussing both the positives and negatives of islands as refuges. There are examples of isolated human communities surviving for thousands of years on places like Easter Island. Islands could provide protection against many low-level risks, notably including bio-risks. However, they are vulnerable to tsunamis, bird-transmitted diseases and other risks. This paper aims to explore how to use the advantages of islands for survival during global catastrophes. Design/methodology/approach Preliminary horizon scanning based on the application of the research principles established in the previous global catastrophic literature. Findings The large number of islands on Earth, and their diverse conditions, increase the chance that one of them will provide protection from a catastrophe. Additionally, this protection could be increased if an island was used as a base for a nuclear submarine refuge combined with underground bunkers and/or extremely long-term data storage. The requirements for survival on islands, their vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate and adapt to risks are explored. Several existing islands, suitable for the survival of different types of risk, timing and budgets, are examined. Islands suitable for different types of refuges and other island-like options that could also provide protection are also discussed. Originality/value The possible use of islands as refuges from social collapse and existential risks has not been previously examined systematically. This paper contributes to the expanding research on survival scenarios.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to estimate the price and life-saving potential of alternate foods. The sun could be blocked by asteroid impact, supervolcanic eruption or nuclear winter caused by burning of cities during a nuclear war. The primary problem in these scenarios is loss of food production. Previous work has shown that alternate foods not dependent on sunlight, such as bacteria grown on natural gas and cellulose turned into sugar enzymatically, could feed everyone in these catastrophes, and preparation for these foods would save lives in a manner that is highly cost-effective. Design/methodology/approach This study estimates the price of alternate foods during a catastrophe in line with global trade and information sharing, but factors such as migration, loans, aid or conflict are not taken into consideration. Findings Without alternate foods, for a five-year winter, only approximately 10 per cent of the population would survive. The price of dry food would rise to approximately $100/kg, and the expenditure on this food would be approximately $100tn. If alternate foods were $8/kg, the surviving global population increases to approximately 70 per cent, saving >4billion lives. Research limitations/implications A nongovernmental mechanism for coordinating the investments of rich people may be possible. Identifying companies whose interests align with alternate food preparations may save lives at a negative cost. Practical implications The probability of loss of civilization and its impact on future generations would be lower in this scenario, and the total expenditure on food would be halved. Originality/value Preparation for alternate foods is a good investment even for wealthy people who would survive without alternate foods.